Friday, February 23, 2007

Oscar Predix 2007

We all know how much I love to make predictions to see if they come true. And Aggs requested that I voice my opinions this year. I'll have to look back through my posts to see how I did last year. I've been holding back and not reading the media's predictions so I'm not biased by that. Which seems odd since you'd think I'd base opinions on how others see the movies. But I like to pick more on gut reactions and logic. So without further ado, here they go.

Edited to add: checked last year's predix and I was 4 of 5. I missed Supporting Actress, but actually nailed Best Picture. I forgot to do director. We'll see if I do better this year.

Best Picture
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Departed
The Queen

Admittedly, the only one of these I've seen is Little Miss Sunshine. I loved that movie and would love for it to win. However, as much as I want that, it's a long shot. It's going to be a toss up between Babel and Letters from Iwo Jima. Just as Crash swept in out of no where and won last year, Babel, the same type of movie, could do so here. But never count out how much the Academy people love a Clint Eastwood flick.

What I want to win: Little Miss Sunshine
Will win: Letters from Iwo Jima

Best Director
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed
Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Paul Greengrass, United 93

Again, haven't seen any of these. The story the last few years has been about how Scorsese will finally take it this year. From the people who have seen his movie, they weren't all that impressed. As much as the Academy loves Clint Eastwood, I think Scorsese will break through this year and take it home.

Who I want to win: Martin Scorsese
Who will: Martin Scorsese

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

This is getting embarrassing that I really haven't seen these movies. I did see Will Smith and liked it, but didn't love it. I have always had a soft spot for Ryan Gosling and heard he is fantastic in his movie. However, he is a really long shot. And Aggs would swoon for a thousand years to see her Leo win. (That's an obsession that dates back to 1997 when she and I decorated our dorm room with the Leo blinds. They were a fantastic invention where we cut up Leo's Teen Beat photos into slats and taped them to the outside of the blinds so that you could turn the blinds and Leo would magically appear. No, we weren't seriously that obsessed, just wacky bored. But we were the talk of the floor for weeks by our impressed floormates.) When the noms came out, someone, who shall remain nameless feared that Peter O'Toole would get the post-humous sympathy vote. Her fears were negated when I pointed out that was Peter Boyle that died. This is really Forest Whitaker's to lose. I like him. If he loses this one, I will be stunned.

Who I want to win: Ryan Gosling
Who will: Forest Whitaker

Best Actress
Penélope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

I could handle any of these ladies winning, with the exception of Penelope Cruz. She bugs the heck out of me and I don't think she is a decent actress, let alone a good one. Helen Mirren has this one wrapped up, with a possible late surge from Meryl Streep.

Who I want to win: Kate Winslet
Who will: Helen Mirren

Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

Eddie Murphy has been sweeping awards season this year. Personally, I think this is a weak category. I could see either Djimon or Mark getting a surge for their work. And Dreamgirls didn't get the big nominations like they thought they would. I really want to go for an underdog here, even though my gut tells me no.

Who I want to win: Mark Wahlberg
Who will: Djimon Hounsou (Just kidding, officially I'm wagering on Eddie Murphy, but these were all getting too predictable).

Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail BreslinLittle Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

Abigail Breslin was fantastic in her role. Any other year and she would likely have stole this award. But people love the Cinderella story of Jennifer Hudson way too much to let her go without winning. While I'll be shocked if she doesn't win, the lack of noms for Dreamgirls may be an indication that she won't pull it off.

Who I want to win: Abigail Breslin
Who will: Jennifer Hudson

Looking back over these, it seems like there are really going to be no surprises this year. They just seem too much like shoe-ins. The only one's I think are up for grabs are Best Picture and Supporting Actor. And the latter may all be in my imagination.